Estimated U.S. data-center electricity use in 2023, not a sum of every facility meter.
Data centers / Power
Power is a chain,
not one number.
What we know now: U.S. data-center electricity use is rising, but a national forecast cannot tell you what one project will use or who will pay for grid upgrades. Local outcomes depend on project scale and timing, interconnection, generation, utility territory, and the approved tariff.
Evidence reviewed 2026-08-23Compounded 2030 national uncertainty range in the reviewed LBNL update; not a local promise.
Large-load tariff protections differ by utility and regulator. A rule in AEP Ohio is not an Ohio-wide rule.
What changed
2 meaningful updates
Only changes that materially affect BrooksFlow's current understanding appear here.
The announced PORTS-Pike project scope changed
A new sponsor disclosure described approximately 8 GW of planned IT capacity, new job projections, community-fund commitments, and a closed-loop air-cooled design intent.
B evidence · updatedThe national 2030 data-center electricity estimate was updated
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory published a 2025 update with a 649 TWh reference case and a wider 521–843 TWh compounded uncertainty range for 2030.
A evidence · new forecastWhy it matters
Capacity, energy, and cost are different.
Megawatts describe a rate of power. Megawatt-hours and terawatt-hours describe energy over time. A planned IT-capacity figure is not the same as measured grid demand or annual consumption.
What we do not know
Project disclosures are often incomplete.
Energization schedules, peak demand, load factors, generation additions, upgrade costs, and contract terms can remain unknown or confidential. BrooksFlow keeps missing values unknown rather than converting them to zero.
Real projects
Read scale in its local system.
Explore the evidence
Every number keeps its type and place.
Open the evidence receipt for vintage, source relationship, assumptions, and limitations.
Estimated
U.S. data centers used an estimated 176 TWh of electricity in 2023 — about 4.4% of total U.S. electricity consumption.
This is a modeled national estimate, not a meter reading from every facility.
Forecast
U.S. data-center electricity use could reach 325–580 TWh in 2028, or roughly 6.7%–12% of U.S. electricity consumption.
The width of the range is part of the finding: future AI hardware, deployment, and operating practices are uncertain.
Forecast
U.S. data-center electricity use is forecast at 649 TWh in the 2030 reference case, with compounded uncertainty of 521–843 TWh (9.5%–15.3% of U.S. electricity).
U.S. data-center electricity use is forecast at 649 TWh in the 2030 reference case, with compounded uncertainty of 521–843 TWh (9.5%–15.3% of U.S. electricity).
Regulatory requirement
Pennsylvania's PUC model tariff generally addresses loads above 50 MW individually or 100 MW in aggregate.
Pennsylvania's PUC model tariff generally addresses loads above 50 MW individually or 100 MW in aggregate.
Regulatory requirement
In AEP Ohio territory, qualifying data-center loads above about 25 MW can face minimum-demand provisions up to roughly 85% of contracted capacity and terms up to 12 years including ramp.
In AEP Ohio territory, qualifying data-center loads above about 25 MW can face minimum-demand provisions up to roughly 85% of contracted capacity and terms up to 12 years including ramp.